Report: Energy Demands Are Growing - Solar Power Must Grow Too
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Climate change mitigation forecasts show that global solar power generation needs to increase from 3-4% of the grid today to 50% of the grid in 2050. Due to increasing energy demands, the global grid in 2050 will require 83 Thousand TWh, which means solar power must provide about 41 Thousand TWh. This is more than today’s entire grid at 27 Thousand TWh! Innovative companies, valuable new technologies, and strong public policy can further reduce the cost of solar power and help mitigate carbon emissions.
The Current Solar Landscape
Generation 1: Silicon
Silicon currently makes up 95% of global solar power generation. Its low levelized cost with energy storage is about $85-$158/MWh (compared to $45-$152 for natural gas and coal) which makes it financially attractive. For the production of one thousand TWh of power, the embedded emissions of silicon-based solar power would be 42 million tonnes of CO2e, which is tiny in comparison to natural gas (480 million tonnes), oil (850 million tonnes), or coal (1 billion tonnes). Silicon’s CO2e footprint still needs to be minimized. Using renewable power to make the cells and increasing the market mix of other comparable technologies such as CdTe will help significantly. The low cost of silicon solar cells has been a big driver for growth of solar power to date.
New Technologies
Nascent materials such as perovskites hold promise for further decreasing the CO2e footprint of solar, along with cost reductions and solar photoconversion efficiency improvements. Perovskites refer to a family of crystal structures characterized by high efficiency, flexibility, and low weight. They can be used in tandem with other solar technologies like silicon, which increases the wavelength spectrum of sunlight absorbed by solar cells. Perovskites are processed at low temperatures, which should minimize the capital expenditures for manufacturing. However, perovskite solar cells are still expected to cost $0.30 to $0.40 per watt–about $0.10 more than silicon. As such, their best applications may be in tandem with other solar cells and/or for new applications that require low weight and curved surfaces such as electric vehicles. Researchers are studying perovskite durability, perovskite’s biggest barrier to commercial adoption. SEP has identified many startup and growth stage companies developing perovskite-related technologies. The report also found that patents and research publications for perovskites have risen dramatically since 2015, indicating significant technology development in the area.
Another technology of note is the so-called III-V solar cell, consisting of materials made with elements from groups III and V on the periodic table. These types of cells are often made with three or more junctions, allowing them to absorb a broad spectrum of sunlight. However, the high efficiency comes with an extremely high cost at 300x more than silicon-based technology. III-V cells are suitable for space-based applications, where lightweight, highly efficient solar power can be used in the expanding satellite telecom industry and other potential applications. SEP has identified companies working in this area and presents information that shows R&D at US research institutions may reduce the cost of III-V cells by 50% to 75%.
Public policy that supports development of solar technologies and deployment is well-developed for commercial, residential, and utility-scale solar. The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) created or extended six federal tax credit programs that include solar power. SEP also found nearly 3,000 state-level bills and 15 upcoming federal government funding opportunities related to solar. This report describes the existing legislation at both levels.
Interesting Companies
Of the 197 global startup and growth (S&G) solar technology companies identified by SEP, the median company is 12 years old with 19 employees. In total, the 197 companies have received 163 SBIR/STTR awards and 26 ARPA-E awards and have 616 investors. They operate mainly in the Clean Energy and Advanced Materials Cleantech Sectors as defined by SEP. SEP identified 18 of the S&G companies as particularly noteworthy.
PURCHASE THE REPORT
The Solar Photoconversion Technologies Topic Report includes:
A 301 page report in slide deck format.
A global database of notable companies (with a US focus).
Two hours of individualized support from the SEP team.
Find more details, including an executive summary, and purchase the report on the SEP Marketplace here: https://www.saoradh.com/marketplace.
ABOUT TOPIC REPORTS
Topic reports explore cleantech investment spaces with the aim to calibrate investors, uncover opportunities, and identify possible solutions to Solving Climate+ by 2050. SEP produces topic reports twice per quarter to gather data and insights important to evaluating key cleantech investment spaces as part of our Innovation Flow Reporting (IFR) service. Recent and upcoming reports include BattRe (lithium-ion battery recycling), Biochar, Bioplastics, Clean Food, Concrete and Cement, Desalination, Direct Air Capture, Nitrous Oxide, Green Steel, and Refrigerants.
ABOUT INNOVATION FLOW REPORTING
SEP’s Innovation Flow Reporting (IFR) service is designed to illuminate innovation hubs and identify and capture the best cleantech commercialization opportunities for SEP and our corporate clients. More than just market research, Innovation Flow Reporting delivers actionable information. IFR uncovers new cleantech opportunities for corporate venture capital offices, innovation programs, product development teams, and R&D departments. We know it works because we use it to drive our investing.
ABOUT SAORADH ENTERPRISE PARTNERS
Saoradh Enterprise Partners (SEP) is a cleantech venture capital and research firm based in Boulder, Colorado. SEP partners with innovators, entrepreneurs, and corporations to find solutions at the magical intersection of science (what’s possible), finance (what’s bankable), industry (what’s needed), and planet (what matters). Learn more at www.saoradh.com.